Did you know Afghanistan is the source of more than 80% of the world’s opium? With almost all of the heroin trafficked into the UK coming from Afghanistan, researchers at Cranfield University (UK) have partnered with the UN to help automate painstaking research for the opium monitoring program.
An Implementing Partner Agreement between Cranfield and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) will see academics use artificial intelligence (AI) to interpret data from satellites to track where poppy crops are grown in Afghanistan.
Already, Cranfield has used its remote sensing technologies to improve the monitoring program. This new partnership, effective until July 2023, expands on the implemented technology by leverage the power of AI automation.
Daniel Simms, a lecturer in remote sensing at Cranfield University, said the university’s research on illicit poppy cultivation is an essential part of the opium monitoring program, and that work to automate the process using AI will save many hours.
“This is a hugely significant project to be involved with. In terms of Afghanistan, we’re talking about opium production on a grand scale—something like the combined size of 500,000 rugby pitches—so a huge amount of cultivation. The UN recognizes our world-leading expertise in the technological development of AI to assess crop cultivation, and we are really pleased to be able to deliver this vital work for them,” said Simms.
Discrepancies and gaps
The UNODC and the U.S. government were using satellite imagery to monitor land cover from a distance, but discrepancies became obvious. Remote sensing was resulting in varying estimates of opium poppy cultivation across Afghanistan.
Eventually, researchers from Cranfield stepped in. They employed used medium-resolution imagery, integrated with very high-resolution satellite imagery in focused sample areas to provide a much clearer picture. The new data not only improved poppy cultivation estimates, but also delivered results months earlier in the growing season than was previously possible.
Cranfield scientists also developed new approached to use satellite imagery to check on the timing of opium flowering, opium crop yields and eradication without the need for dangerous, on-the-ground data collection.
In this way, reliable data was provided from across the whole of Afghanistan and over the course of a growing season. The information highlighted changing agricultural practices in real-time: crop rotations, use of new land and changes in forms of crop management, as well as water availability and outbreaks of disease.
In turn, this allowed opium eradication bodies to:
- identify areas of highest production to target counter-narcotics operations
- understand best times of the year for crop eradication
- and, for the first time, get access to data on remote and inaccessible regions.
Reduction of crops and deaths
The annual opium survey, based on the data produced by Cranfield researchers, has become the basis of Afghanistan’s National Drug Control Strategy. It has also led to the physical destruction of opium crops in the fields, backed up with compensation schemes for provincial governors based on the area of crop eradicated. In the Helmand province, for example, poppy cultivation had dropped by 37%.
Cranfield’s image analysis also identified over-reporting of poppy eradication by the U.S.-led Poppy Eradication Force. Ultimately, this was instrumental in the closure of the force—which was funded by U.S. taxpayers—and led to the refocusing of policy toward rural development.
Critically, deaths and serious injuries to staff members of the UNODC, Afghanistan Ministry of Counter-Narcotics and Afghanistan National Police have been reduced, even though recent events have caused major economic contraction in the country, further increasing poverty and violence.
UK researchers have also worked to pass down all their knowledge and expertise to the UNODC and Government of Afghanistan staff to carry out future key remote sensing tasks and data interpretation.