A new study is the first to evaluate the utility of social media as an early predictor of novel psychoactive substances (NPS) trends on a nationwide scale.
Researchers at Florida Atlantic University, the Center for Forensic Science Research & Education (CFSRE) and the Fredric Rieders Family Foundation compared the online mentions of specific NPS on Reddit—a worldwide social media platform with over 430 million active users—with toxicology testing results from forensic investigations thought the U.S. For 7 of the 8 selected NPS, peaks in online mentions were typically followed, in fairly close succession, by peaks in exposures.
The study, published in the International Journal of Drug Policy, focused on: carfentanil, U-47700, eutylone, flualprazolam, N-ethylpentylone, 5F-MDMB-PICA, isotonitazene, and brorphine.
Online data consisted of raw counts of keywords related to the eight NPS that appeared on Reddit forums from 2010 to 2020.
Data from the analysis of toxicological samples for the presence of drugs, including the targeted NPS, were compiled from NPS Discovery at the CFSRE and NMS Labs, the largest forensic toxicology reference laboratory in the U.S. Both the number of Reddit mentions and number of NPS exposures were aggregated by month and quarter within each year, with quarterly data used to estimate trends.
For seven out of the eight NPS, the first mention of the drug on Reddit was years before the first detected toxicological exposure. Additionally, for most of the drugs, peak mentions on Reddit were followed closely by peak exposures in “real life.”
For example, eutylone was first mentioned on Reddit in February 2015, with first exposure in May 2019. Increase in exposures reached a peak in July 2020, which was two months after the peak in Reddit mentions. That was also the case for three other NPS:
- U-47700 was first mentioned in November 2014; with first exposure in October 2016. The peak of exposures was 11 months after the peak in Reddit mentions.
- N-Ethylpentylone was first mentioned in April 2016; first exposure in August 2017. The number of cases peaked in September 2016, five months after the peak in Reddit mentions.
- Isotonitazenew was first mentioned in January 2019; first exposure in November 2019. Cases increased through March 2020, peaking at 38 cases three months after the peak in Reddit mentions.
Meanwhile, carfentanil was first mentioned on Reddit in February 2013, with first detection in October 2016—44 months later. However, peak carfentanil toxicological exposure occurred in January 2017, four months before the peak in Reddit mentions. Flualprazolam was the same—first mentioned in August 2015; first exposure in April 2018. But, exposure peaked in May 2020, one month before the peak in Reddit mentions.
Brorphine was first mentioned in February 2019, with first exposure in July 2020. While researchers think the peak may have occurred in late 2020, the NPS continued to be detected throughout toxicology cases in 2021, so the lifecycle is not complete yet. 5F-MDMB-PICA was first mentioned in September 2018 with the first exposure in June 2018—making it the only outlier. Even so, the peak in exposures preceded the peak in Reddit mentions by seven months.
“Results from our study confirm that activity on drug use forums in the virtual world can help predict changes in exposures associated with new or re-emerging novel psychoactive substances in the real world, which has the potential to be used as a strategy for inclusion in early warning systems,” said Elan Barenholtz, senior author of the study and an associate professor of psychology at Florida Atlantic University. “An advanced early warning system should include capabilities to capture a signal that is concurrent with, or even predates, the observed exposures themselves.”
Barenholtz and team say the results of their study will help propel future work on NPS, with the scientists even identifying key areas of research, including examining other social media platforms and assessing geographical differences at the international, national and regional levels.
For their part, the team has already begun to monitor online vendor websites and their availability of NPS.
“In many cases, Reddit mentions are derived from individuals finding new drugs for sale online and then inquiring about or describing their identity or effects among subreddits. We hypothesize that online recreational drug suppliers may even be a predictor for increased Reddit mentions,” the authors conclude in their study.