From 2015 to 2017, the United States saw a rise in the rate of firearm deaths, according to a study led by University of Michigan researchers.
In all, the U.S. saw a 14 percent rise in the rate of firearm deaths from 2015 through 2017, compared with the rate seen in the years 1999 through 2014. However, researchers were alarmed by the sharp increase they saw in the last three years—nearly one-fifth of the deaths occurred from 2015 through 2017.
The rate of suicide—60 percent—and homicide—38 percent—stayed steady in both 1999 to 2015 and 2015 to 2017.
Study results, which was based on date obtained from the CDC, did provide subpopulation clues, and could possible even provide avenues to help reverse the overall trend of firearm deaths in specific locations and demographics.
“What we can see is a worsening epidemic of firearm mortality that is geographically and demographically broad,” said Jason Goldstick, research assistant professor of emergency medicine at the U-M Medical School and co-author of the paper published in Health Affairs. “But our analysis of subpopulations also reveals clues to how to focus efforts to reverse the overall trend.”
Geographic and demographic data
While most states saw an increase in firearm-caused mortality, some were able to buck the trend. New York, California, the District of Columbia, Arizona and Nevada all saw an overall decrease in firearm deaths from 1999 to 2017. Importantly, New York, California and the District of Columbia saw a decrease in firearm-related mortality in the 2015 to 2017 time period.
Demographically, men had larger absolute increases in firearm mortality than females. Mortality rates rose significantly among non-Hispanic whites and blacks, while Hispanic whites saw a reduction in recent years.
The authors note that they can’t tell from the data they used what factors led to the increase in firearm death rates in recent years, nor the decreases seen in certain groups and geographic areas. However, they point out that the consistent findings across so many states and demographic groups indicate that the rise from 2015 to 2017 was not due to random variation.
The study results broken down by geographic location and demographics could help policymakers identify the sub-populations most at need of policy-based interventions.
Photo: The study's data were used to create a state-by-state map of firearm mortality rate trends from 1999 to 2017. Credit: Health Affairs/University of Michigan