Madeleine McCann—one of the most famous, most expensive, most heavily reported missing child cases in history. $18 million spent on investigations. A pedophile suspect soon to be released by Germany for lack of evidence. “Inconclusive” DNA collected by the Portuguese police that could solve the case. Does the British government want to know the truth?
The Child Vanishes
Maddie McCann disappeared on May 3, 2007 from her family's Praia da Luz holiday home in Portugal's Algarve. The British blonde child with green-blue eyes was 3 years old.
Cadaver dogs Eddie and Keela alerted the police to human blood in the apartment. Floor tiles, skirting boards, wall swabs and curtain sections were collected for DNA. The dogs also alerted to luggage in the trunk of a rental car the family had hired three weeks after Maddie disappeared. In total, there were 18 evidence items, plus family references.
The DNA Vanishes
The dogs got it right. British Forensic Science Service (FSS) scientists found DNA on the items. Their laboratory generated DNA data files. But they couldn't interpret their DNA mixture data. “Inconclusive,” they said.
They deemed eight items “too complex” to interpret, and six “too meagre.” FSS scientist Dr. John Lowe could see parts of Maddie's DNA in the data, but he couldn't unmix the mixtures.
On a skirting board, the FSS reported “a DNA result from at least three persons too complex to permit a meaningful interpretation.” Lowe conceded, “we cannot separate the components out into individual DNA profiles.”
Lowe lacked the computer technology to transform complex DNA data into simple reliable answers. He could make no “meaningful interpretation” or “meaningful comparison.” In the blind eyes of the FSS, Maddie’s DNA evidence had vanished.
The Maddie Podcast
In 2019, Australian reporter Mark Saunokonoko streamed “Maddie,” a popular podcast that investigated the disappearance and stonewalling of Madeleine McCann.
Saunokonoko had written a DNA feature article about the Australia v. Robert Xie quintuple homicide. In 2013, my company’s TrueAllele® computer had unmixed the genotypes of 4 or 5 murdered family members from a small streak of blood in Xie's garage. Saunokonoko knew Cybergenetics could unmix relatives in a complex DNA mixture.
Saunokonoko sent me Lowe's report and e-mail explaining why the FSS thought the holiday apartment and car mixture DNA were inconclusive. Before my March DNA podcast interview, I reviewed the documents. I saw that the FSS had produced highly informative DNA data, but they didn't know what it meant.
Saunokonoko asked if the inconclusive FSS results ruled out the DNA coming from Madeleine McCann. I told him: “No, in fact, [the report] specifically says that it could be her, but there's a balance of probabilities. [Dr. Lowe needed] to consider whether the match is genuine, as opposed to whether the match came from chance. That is exactly what DNA match statistics do.” But he didn't know how to calculate it.
Saunokonoko understood that the limited FSS methods could only give inconclusive answers to the McCann questions. As I said: “The problem is [Dr. Lowe’s] methods can't separate out the different people. It could be a match, but unable to balance it against the chance of coincidence, he can't tell. He just doesn't have the mathematics or computers to answer the question.”
An Offer They Should Not Refuse
A cartoon commentary circulated on the Internet about the UK government’s unwillingness to let Cybergenetics solve the McCann DNA for free.
On the podcast, I offered to run TrueAllele at no cost on all 18 DNA evidence items. Comparing with the family references, the computer could then give an accurate answer to the McCann mixture problem. The match statistics would tell what people – known or unknown – had left their DNA on which items.
Saunokonoko tried to get the data files we needed to test the McCann DNA. But he only got a bureaucratic runaround. The UK Home Office, National DNA Database, Forensic Archive, Scotland Yard, and Leicestershire Police all refused his Freedom of Information requests.
Detective Chief Inspector Nicola Wall heads up Operation Grange, Scotland Yard’s 18-million-dollar Madeleine McCann investigation. I wrote to DCI Wall in April of 2019, offering pro bono DNA help using TrueAllele. Crickets.
Luis Neves is the National Director of Portugal's Policia Judiciaria. In May that year I sent him a letter (translated into Portuguese) offering free TrueAllele assistance. Grilos.
Sunlight is the Best Disinfectant
Australia’s “Sunrise” morning television program interviewed me on April 1, 2019 about the McCann DNA evidence.
Presenter Samantha Armytage asked me why the FSS found the DNA mixtures inconclusive. I told her that “the British government simply lacked the tools to analyze the data they had produced.”
Presenter David Koch asked why Scotland Yard wasn't retesting the DNA data with better technology. I answered: “Government is used to failing with DNA evidence. Over the last 20 years, most DNA evidence has been mixtures of two or more people, and the usual result is inconclusive. In most of these samples, the government just got it wrong. There has been no major movement for government wanting to go back and undo their failures of the past.”
Who’s Afraid of the McCann DNA?
Edward Albee once explained the title of his “Who's Afraid of Virginia Wolff?” play. “It means," he said, "who is afraid of living life without false illusions?”
Does Scotland Yard believe that after spending 18 million taxpayer dollars to not find Maddie that everything was done that could have been done? Or are they afraid of exposing hidden decades of DNA failure in tens of thousands of criminal cases? Would finding DNA truth for Maddie reveal this failure and mar their reputation?
The Madeleine McCann investigation has stumbled down blind alleys for almost 20 years. Suspect Christian Brueckner will soon be released, to be stained by unproven guilt or deprived of DNA innocence. Cybergenetics offer of free and immediate TrueAllele testing still stands. The results would shed DNA light on Maddie's cold case disappearance.
As I told senior news reporter Tom Towers of London's Daily Star in April 2019, “The government has a choice. They can continue to cover up the DNA mistakes made in this case, and in thousands of other major crimes. Or they can seek the truth and open their DNA evidence to outside scientists to find the answer.”
About the author
DNA Matters, an exclusive Forensic column, discusses cases that have been aided by the power of computer software in DNA analysis. It is authored by Dr. Mark Perlin, Ph.D., M.D., Ph.D., chief scientist, executive and founder at Cybergenetics. Twenty five years ago, Perlin invented TrueAllele® probabilistic genotyping for automated human identification from DNA mixtures. His company helped identify victim remains in the World Trade Center disaster, has worked for prosecution and defense in over a thousand cases, and has helped exonerate over ten innocent men. He was a Scholar in Residence at Duquesne University’s Forensic Science and Law program, and is a Fellow of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences. © Mark Perlin 2025
Disclaimer: The perspectives expressed here are solely those of the author, not any of the institutions they are affiliated or Forensic.